What is fund scenario modeling?

Fund scenario modeling is the practice of projecting forward returns at the fund level — IRR, MOIC, DPI, TVPI, and waterfall economics — by composing exit assumptions for each portfolio company into a unified model. Most firms do this in spreadsheets: someone exports cap tables and holdings, types them into Excel, and the file goes stale the moment a new mark lands. Foresight’s Scenario Modeling does the same job on top of your live holdings, cap tables, fund accounting, and waterfall data — so the model reflects new data automatically, and every assumption carries a rationale trail.

What's the difference between cap table modeling and fund scenario modeling?

Cap table modeling looks at a single company — modeling rounds, dilution, and exit waterfalls to figure out what each shareholder gets at a given exit valuation. Fund scenario modeling sits one layer up: it takes the per-company exit outputs across every holding in a fund and composes them into fund-level returns (IRR, MOIC, DPI, TVPI), GP carry, and LP economics. You need both. Foresight does cap table modeling per company as the input layer, then rolls those scenarios into fund-level models with your full waterfall and fee structure applied. The same exit modeled at the cap table level flows through to every fund that holds the company — without any spreadsheet reconciliation.

How is fund scenario modeling different from Excel?

The starting point. Excel models start blank — someone exports cap tables and holdings, types them in, and the model goes stale the moment a new mark lands. Scenario Modeling starts from your live Foresight data. When Acme raises a bridge or you record a distribution, the scenario reflects it without anyone re-typing. The other difference is structure. Excel is a free-form grid; this is a structured model with named events, named exits, attribution, and a rationale trail. That's what makes it usable across deal team and finance, and defensible in an LP review.

How does AI work in Foresight's scenario modeling?

No. The AI agent suggests; humans decide. When the agent proposes an exit multiple, it cites the comparable transactions it pulled from. The user accepts, rejects, or modifies — and that decision is logged. Nothing in a final model exists because the AI put it there unsupervised. For an LP review, you can show: this number was set by [person] on [date], the AI suggested [X] based on these comps, the deal team chose [Y] for these reasons, finance accepted on [date]. Full chain of custody.

How do fund scenarios update when underlying data changes?

Active scenarios recalculate automatically when source data changes — new marks, cap table updates, distributions, capital calls. Users in-session see a banner; users not in-session see a change summary on next open. Edits in progress are preserved and applied to the updated data on save. For meetings where you need a fixed snapshot, presentation mode freezes data for up to 4 hours. For LP reporting, you lock the scenario — frozen as the source of record.

Does Foresight support PE scenario modeling — add-ons, recaps, dividend recaps?

Native. PE company scenarios include capital structure (debt tranches, covenants, amortization), operating projections (revenue, EBITDA), and consolidation (platform plus add-ons with synergies). Returns attribution decomposes the equity story into EBITDA growth, multiple expansion, and leverage contribution — the actual math PE deal teams care about. Covenant compliance is checked through the holding period at each modeled time step. Dividend recaps create fund-level distributions (DPI impact). Refinancings update debt terms. The system surfaces alerts when projected leverage drops enough to open recap capacity.

Can you model the same portfolio company across multiple funds?

Yes. A single company scenario can be referenced by fund scenarios across Funds I, II, III, and so on. When Acme exits, every fund holding Acme sees the impact in the same calculation pass. Multi-fund views show aggregated outputs across all selected funds. This matters for cross-fund questions like “if our top three companies exit, what does it do to vintage-year IRR across the platform?” — answerable in one query, not three reconciled spreadsheets.

How does scenario modeling integrate with fund accounting and European waterfall calculations?

Scenario Modeling sits on top of Foresight's existing waterfall calculator and fund accounting modules — it doesn't replace them. Fund-level outputs use the same waterfall logic that powers your actuals, applied to projected cashflows. GP carry, LP returns, and preferred-return calculations come out the way your accountants would compute them, because they're computed by the same engine. Net-net: you don't have to re-implement your waterfall in Excel to project carry. The system already knows it.

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Fund Scenario Modeling, built on data you already trust.

Build company-level exit scenarios, compose them into fund-level forecasts — IRR, MOIC, DPI, TVPI, and waterfall — all on the same live data already running your reporting.

May 12, 2026

5 min read

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Stop modeling on stale exports. Model on live data.

Most funds model forward returns in spreadsheets.

Today’s Reality

Someone exports cap tables and holdings, types them into Excel, builds a column for each scenario, and the file goes stale the moment a new mark lands.

Decision-Making Friction

By the time a partner asks “what if Acme exits at 8x?” in an IC meeting, the answer is either “let me get back to you” or a number nobody fully trusts.

Foresight's Scenario Modeling sits on top of the same live holdings, cap tables, fund accounting, and waterfall data already powering your reporting.

Live Portfolio Data

Your deal team

builds company-level scenarios — VC events, PE add-ons, dividend recaps, exits.

Waterfall Intelligence

Your finance team

composes those into fund-level models with full waterfall economics.

Interactive Scenarios

Partners

explore “what if” questions in real time.

Rationale Tracking

Every assumption

carries a rationale trail. When source data changes, scenarios recalculate automatically.

Company- and Fund-level scenarios, unified.

Company-level assumptions automatically roll up into fund-level outcomes — keeping ownership, dilution, returns, and exposure connected across the entire model.

Company Scenarios

For each portfolio company, build a forward model from current state to exit. Add the events you expect — financing rounds, bridges, secondaries, add-on acquisitions, dividend recaps, debt refinancings — then set exit assumptions. Current state is read-only and pulled live from Foresight, so you start from the truth.

VC events: Series rounds, bridges, secondaries, down rounds

PE events: add-ons, recaps, refinancings, milestones

Best · base · worst · custom variants per company

Exit method, timing, valuation

Returns attribution: growth · multiple · leverage

Owned by Deal Teams

The people who actually attend the board meetings build the model. They see only their companies, not the full fund. Quarterly cadence; faster when material events happen.

Fund Scenarios

Compose the company scenarios into a fund-level model. Pick best/base/worst per company, add hypothetical new investments, apply your waterfall and fee structure, and produce LP-ready outputs. Multi-fund views show how a single exit affects every fund holding the company.

IRR · MOIC · DPI · RVPI · TVPI

Cashflow projections (J-curve, calls, distributions)

GP carry & LP returns through full waterfall

PE-specific: returns attribution, leverage profile

Sensitivity analysis on key drivers

Owned by Finance & CFO

Includes a “Ready for Review” dashboard for company scenarios coming in from deal teams. Modify-with-attribution if you change an assumption — deal teams get notified, history stays clean.

Deal Team Sessions

Build a forward model for one company.
Typically 15–45 minutes per company, done quarterly or when something material happens

Open the company

Current state pulled live from Foresight (read-only)

Add an event

Series C · bridge · secondary · add-on · recap

AI suggests

“Comparable Series Cs raised at this stage at...”

You decide

Accept · modify · reject — logged either way

Add another

Events run sequentially, downstream auto-recalculates

Set exit

Method · timing · valuation · returns attribution

Document why

Lightweight rationale — short text and tags

Hand off

Mark “Ready for Review” — finance gets notified

Why this matters

Your deal team are the experts on their companies — they sit on boards, take CEO calls, see the operating data. The system gets out of their way and just captures what they already know, in a structure finance can compose into a fund model.

The Finance Session

Take incoming company scenarios from deal teams and compose them into a fund-level model.
Quarterly cadence, more structured than deal-team sessions.

Review dashboard

All "Ready for Review" scenarios across funds

Read rationale

Why every assumption was set — full audit trail

Accept · modify · return

Modifications attributed to you, deal team notified

Pick scenarios

Best · base · worst · custom per company

Add hypotheticals

New investments — checked against dry powder

Apply economics

Waterfall · fees · carry · preferred return

Review outputs

IRR · MOIC · DPI · TVPI · cashflow · sensitivity

Lock for LP

Frozen as the source of record for reporting

Why this matters

Finance owns the final number. They need to see how the deal team got there, modify with attribution when something doesn't reconcile, and produce LP-ready outputs that match the way your waterfall actually pays. All of that happens here, not in a side spreadsheet.

The Partner / IC Session

Live exploration during IC meetings, partnership reviews, or LP conversations.
Speed and conversational interaction are what matter.

Open the scenario

Pre-built by deal team and finance

Ask a what-if

"What if Acme exits at 8x?" — natural language to the agent

See it instantly

Recalc happens at conversation speed

Compare side-by-side

8x vs 12x vs strategic acquirer

Cross-fund view

How does Acme's exit hit Funds I, II, III?

Save a version

Named save so the exploration isn't lost

Pull up rationale

Tap any number to see why it's there

Export for the room

PDF for IC deck, Excel for the model nerd

Why this matters

When a partner asks a question in IC, the answer should land before the next agenda item, not in tomorrow's followup email. The system collapses the time between question and defensible answer — that's the difference between scenario modeling that gets used and scenario modeling that gets exported once and forgotten.

From "let me get back to you" to "here's the answer."

Real-time IC

What-if at conversation speed

Partners ask “what if Acme exits at 8x?” and see the IRR, MOIC, and DPI impact instantly — not after lunch. Live recalculation against the same fund accounting data running your reporting.

LP Reporting

Forecasts you can defend

Every assumption carries a rationale trail — who set it, when, what the AI suggested, what the deal team decided, what finance accepted. When an LP asks “why this number?”, you have an answer.

PE Workflows

Add-ons, recaps, refinancings — modeled

Returns attribution between EBITDA growth, multiple expansion, and leverage. Covenant compliance through holding period. Consolidated financials on platform-plus-add-ons.

Multi-fund

One exit, every fund affected

When the same company sits across Funds I, II, and III, exits and recaps fan out automatically. No reconciling three spreadsheets that disagree about Acme's mark.

Operating Cadence

A real handoff, not an email chain

Deal team marks a scenario “Ready for Review.” Finance sees it on a dashboard with the rationale trail. Modify-with-attribution preserves who said what. The quarterly process gets shorter every cycle.

Cashflow Forecasting

Projected net cashflows, by quarter

Capital calls, distributions, and net cashflow projected forward — by fund, by quarter — built from the same company scenarios that produce IRR. The J-curve, planned capital calls, and expected distributions all roll up automatically.

Trusted by some of the smartest firms in the private market

Forecasts you can put a name on.

Built for defensible projections.

Rationale trail

Every assumption logs who set it, when, what the AI suggested, and what the user decided. Append-only. Queryable for audit.

Change attribution

When finance modifies a deal team assumption, the system tracks both versions and flags who changed what. No anonymous edits.

Lock for LP reporting

Finalized scenarios can be locked — frozen as the source of record for an LP report or IC deck. Edits after lock require re-versioning.

AI suggests, never decides

The AI agent surfaces data-grounded suggestions. Users accept, reject, or modify. The system never applies changes without explicit confirmation.

Firm-isolated

Scenarios are scoped to your fund's workspace. Never shared across firms. Never used for model training.

SOC 2 & encryption

Foresight operates under SOC 2 controls. TLS in transit, at-rest encryption on every record.

What partners ask first.

Fund scenario modeling: frequently asked questions.

See fund scenario modeling in action.

Book a 30 min demo to learn how Foresight can turn your 'what-ifs' into strategic capital allocation decisions.

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